Dubai Property Market October 2026: Sales Down 40% on Last Year, Up 5% on September

Start with the raw figures. 11,898 sales and AED 34.7 billion in value. Volume was up 5.4% on September. Value was up 18%, so the average deal got noticeably bigger: about AED 2.9 million this month, against roughly AED 2.6 million in September.

The year-on-year hit of 40.1% looks dramatic because October 2025 was a monster. Working back from the report’s percentages, that month was close to 20,000 sales and around AED 59 billion in value. Almost any month would look weak next to it.

The monthly line tells the calmer story. Sales sat near 19,000 in November and December, slid to around 17,000 in January and February, dropped to about 14,000 in March and April, and touched roughly 10,000 in May. After a recovery to 14,000 in June and July, the last three months have read 12,000, 11,000 and 12,000. These are rounded chart labels.

That looks like a market settling at a lower level, not one still falling.

The median price per square foot came in at AED 1,640, down 1.1% on September and 3.9% on October last year. That is a slightly bigger annual dip than September’s, so it is worth saying plainly: prices are drifting lower, gently.

Cavendish Maxwell flagged in early September that August had brought Dubai’s first annual price decline in around five and a half years, as reported by Khaleej Times on 7 September. Two months on, the data still shows a small decline rather than anything sharper.

Put it in proportion. The DXB Interact yearly series for October runs from about AED 1,043 in 2014, to roughly AED 1,028 in 2021, to a peak of around AED 1,703 last year. At 1,640 we are still about 60% above 2021 and only 3 to 4% under the peak.

The biggest difference in October was between apartments and villas. Apartments remained the dominant property type, but villas recorded stronger performance.

Apartments are still three quarters of all sales and 45% of the money, but they fell 45.2% on last year. Villas did the opposite: 1,356 sales, up 62.4% on September and 5.5% on last October, worth AED 9.1 billion, or 26% of the month’s value.

Plots posted the biggest jump (up 92.7% on the month), but at 449 deals worth AED 5.9 billion, a few very large land transactions can swing that number a lot. We wouldn’t build a theory on it.

Townhouses fell almost as hard as apartments, down 48.9% on last year, and commercial slipped 21.5%.

Comparing primary (new-build) and resale transactions reveals an interesting difference across property types. Apartments look relatively consistent, while villa prices require a closer look.

Apartments look normal. New-build apartments cost about AED 1,719 per sqft, roughly 13% more than resale at AED 1,522, and both are down about 2% on last year.

Villas are where the table needs a warning label. Primary villas show AED 1,236 per sqft, down 30.2%, and well below resale villas at AED 1,631.

Plots, as usual, are too thin to read. Resale plots at AED 917 (up 35.3%) and primary plots at AED 468 (down 7.3%) are probably telling you which plots happened to trade.

By value, resale took 55% of the money and new builds 45%. That flips September, when primary sales had 53%. Resale deals are fewer but bigger, and this month the big tickets went through the resale market.

The busiest areas by sales count were Al Barsha South Fourth, Dubai South, Al Rowaiyah First, Wadi Al Safa 3 and Wadi Al Safa 5. It is a list of mid-market and emerging communities, not the usual postcard names.

Best-selling projects

• Primary apartments: Binghatti Skyterraces led with 207 sales at a median of AED 1.1 million. Raw District 2 by Imtiaz (176 sales, median AED 747K), Garden Living (160, AED 900K) and Damac Lagoons Lagoon Views 13 A (146, AED 713K) followed, with Binghatti Skyflame 1 fifth on 113.
• Primary villas: Tilal Binghatti ran away with it at 336 sales and AED 658 million. Greenz by Danube sold 93 (AED 439 million, median AED 4.5 million), then The Greens at Sobha Sanctuary with 43, Damac Islands 2 Antigua 1 with 42 and Dubai Islands with 29 at a median of AED 9.5 million.
• Resale apartments: Dune Residency led with 38, then Regalia (30), The Mayfair (26) and SLS Dubai (26). Nobody goes above 38, which shows how spread out resale is.
• Resale villas: Lunaya led with 21 sales and AED 141 million, then Damac Lagoons Nice 1 and Portofino with 16 each. Victory Heights sold 10 at a median of AED 9.5 million.

Mortgage transactions came in at 4,604 in October, up 8% on September but 5.6% below last October. That is a change from September, when lending was growing against the trend. Mortgage value was AED 13.2 billion, down 22.1% on the month and 20.4% on the year.

The value drop is bigger than the count drop, so the average loan was smaller (about AED 2.9 million, against roughly AED 4 million in September). Mortgage value can swing with a few large registrations, so we would not read too much into one month.

In the resale market, DXB Interact’s cash versus mortgage split came out at roughly two thirds cash and one third mortgage. Their method strips out refinancing and primary-market registrations so it reflects real money going into resale purchases.

The apartment list opens with a line that reads AED 920 million at Marina Pinnacle in Marsa Dubai. We would not treat that as one flat. A figure that size is far above anything else on the list and looks like a bulk or whole-building transfer recorded in the apartment category.

The next four are more typical for ultra-prime: Balqis Residence Beach Villas on Palm Jumeirah at AED 55 million, W Residences Dubai on the Palm at AED 54 million, Orla by Omniyat on the Palm at AED 49 million and One Sankari West Tower in Business Bay at AED 46 million.

On the villa side, the biggest sale of the month was AED 97 million in Eden Hills, followed by Zuha Island at AED 79 million, Signature Villas at AED 78 million, and The Oasis (Lavita) and District One West at AED 70 million and AED 64 million respectively.

Every residential category is lower than a year ago. Apartments show the sharpest fall at 5.8%. Commercial is the outlier, up 23.3%, which makes it the opposite of September’s picture. Commercial figures are volatile from month to month, so we’d watch whether it holds.

Flat-to-softer prices and falling residential rents mean yields get squeezed a little. If you’re buying to let, run the numbers on today’s rents, not last year’s.

Analysts quoted by AGBI in July described a phase of less speculation, fewer launches and more realistic pricing. October’s data is consistent with that. Here’s how we’d think about it by type of buyer:

• If you’re buying to live: prices are a few percent below last year’s peak and sales are well down, so you have room to negotiate. Resale apartments (down 2.1%) and resale villas (down 2.4%) are both softer, and sellers know buyers have choice.
• If you’re investing: work from today’s rents. Residential rents are lower on the year, and the best-selling projects are mostly entry-level launches, so check how much supply is heading to the area before you buy.
• If you’re selling: price against what is selling now, not last year’s asking price. Resale carried 55% of the money this month, so buyers with cash are out there, but they are picky.